The guidance at the bottom of the pyramid?

(Moussa Keita and Rian Aldridge install a wireless antenna in Bamako)

Being a newcomer to the world of developmental finance C.K. Prahalad's book The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid was very useful in helping me to understand what takes place in under developed markets. I have listed verbatim some of the takeaways I used from the book. I have also tried to adapt some of Prahalad's model to better suit smaller markets. As always I am simply giving my interpretation of the authors work, and I am always open to feedback.

In The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, C.K. Prahalad proposes that there is a vast, untapped market that exists in developing nations with large populations. Prahalad argues that this market opportunity has remained untapped because multinational corporations have to rethink traditional business models to exploit the opportunity profitably.

“The BOP, as a market, will challenge the dominant logic of MNC managers (the beliefs and values that managers serving the developed markets have been socialized with). For example, the basic economics of the BOP market are based on small unit packages, low margin per unit, high volume, and high return on capital employed. This is different from large unit packs, high margin per unit, high volume, and reasonable return on capital employed.”­ – C.K.Prahalad, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid.

Prahalad suggests 12 principles to serve as “the building blocks of a philosophy of innovation for BOP markets.” They are listed below:[1]
1) Focus on price performance of products and services
2) Innovation requires hybrid solutions. BOP consumer problems cannot be solved with old technologies
3) As BOP markets are large, solutions that are developed must be scalable and transportable across countries, cultures, and languages
4) All innovations must focus on conserving resources: eliminate, reduce, and recycle
5) Product development must start from a deep understanding of functionality, not just form
6) Process innovations are just as critical in BOP markets as product innovations.
7) Deskilling work is critical
8) Education of customers on product usage is key
9) Products must work in hostile environments
10) Research on interfaces is critical given the nature of the consumer population.
11) Innovations must reach the consumer (both highly dispersed rural market and a highly dense urban market)
12) Paradoxically, the feature and function evolution in BOP markets can be very rapid. Product developers must focus on the broad architecture of the system – the platform – so that new features can be easily incorporated.

When I read these principles of innovation I understood the message but wondered if the model is applicable to countries such as Mali due to their lack of population density. While Prahalad addresses the need to serve the urban market he is mainly addressing the need for MNCs to explore all markets in countries like China so that massive populations may be fully reached. In areas of lesser population density, investment by MNCs is harder to justify but these markets still need to be served. As Prahalad proposes, a fundamental rethink must occur however in the case of smaller countries investment may need to be approached in terms of regional expansion.

Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) are often looked to as examples of the economic potential of emerging markets. However the economies of these countries are not representative of all emerging markets. Each of these countries has large populations; Russia has the fewest people with approximately 141 million[2]. Each of these countries is very large in terms of area; India is the smallest with approximately 3.2 million square kilometers[3]. The average GDP of the BRIC countries is $4.43 trillion; China’s economy is particularly large with a GDP of over $10 trillion[4]. These countries are used as the benchmark for emerging market investment but I believe looking to these markets may blind us to other opportunities.

If investment is made on the basis of returns on extremely high volumes in a dense area, with a relatively large consumer buying power (on aggregate), how do small nations attract investors? In other words, if we condition MNCs and individual investors to use size and returns on size as the acid-test for investment into developing markets we condition them to believe that all sites failing the acid-test are not worthy of investment when this may not be the case. For example Mali exhibited a 5.1% real growth rate in 2006[5] but given as an absolute dollar amount the Malian economy is this growth is fractional when compared to growth in any of the BRIC countries. However looking at a group of West African countries we can see how thinking regionally can help identify opportunities: Mali, Senegal, Cote D’Ivoire, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Gambia, Burkina Faso, Togo and Benin. The population of these nations combined is approximately 86 million, and has a greater population density than either of Russia or Brazil[6]. I am not trying to suggest that anyone should invest in each of these countries simultaneously but thinking regional helps to identify opportunities, which are otherwise not feasible. Because these markets must be considered in a unique way, opportunity must also be evaluated in a unique way. Factors such as ability to adapt to numerous markets and to provide a high level of price performance are extremely important. Sustainable business practices including human resource development are important to both financial success and to social impact.

The need to identify opportunities in Africa in non-traditional ways caused us to incorporate the ideas put forth by Prahalad with our own ideas of success factors in these markets. Below are the evaluative criteria we have developed for identifying companies that represent potentially profitable opportunities for equity investors.

[1] The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid – C.K. Prahalad, © 2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Wharton School Publishing, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458
[2] CIA World Fact Book Online
[3] CIA World Fact Book Online
[4] CIA World Fact Book Online
[5] Estimate - CIA World Fact Book Online

[6] CIA World Fact Book Online

Traditional Methods of Investing in Africa

As mentioned in the previous blog, the next step in my progression was to show how new ideas could be used to invest in Mali. However, I thought it would be a good idea to first discuss how investors currently approach the African market.

Traditionally investment in Africa is made in the form of relief funds, humanitarian effort and debt financing. These types of investment are made because of a lack of formal equity markets and large corporations, and because the return on investment is known ahead of time. In the case of foreign aid and humanitarian work the return is often a sense of helping and improving the local environment. In the case of debt investment there is no guesswork with projected earnings the expected return is denoted by the terms of the debt instrument. To further ensure return, foreign debt is often issued in a foreign currency so that the lenders do not bear the currency risk associated by African nations. From the perspective of the African borrower the value of domestic currency often exhibits great volatility. This means that there is an increased likelihood that borrowers will be unable to repay, and therefore face higher rates of borrowing to compensate lenders for the additional risk. Recently investors have looked at new methods of investing in local currency debt in Africa. Lending on terms to be repaid in local currency reduces the risk of default by the borrower due to currency risk. Unfortunately, the borrower then increases their exposure to currency devaluation. In the extreme case the borrower could make all payments in a currency worthless to the lender. A potential solution to this problem is to diversify lending across countries by pooling the funds made available by lenders. A fund administrator then distributes lending across countries and all lenders benefit from diversification of funds across a number of countries.

A detailed explanation of this process can be found in Up From Sin: A Portfolio Approach to Financial Salvation a paper written by Randall Dodd and Shari Spiegel, January 2005 (No. 34 in a series of g-24 discussion papers for the United Nations). The paper draws on research (Haussman, 2001, 2002) that concludes developing nations are more able to cope with the negative effects created by shocks and policies errors, on ability to repay debt, if they borrow in their own currency. Dodd and Spiegel note:

“ The market risk, which consists of the uncertainty of domestic interest rates (i.e., interest rates in local currency assets) and exchange rates of each local currency security, is often significant. From 1994 to 2003, the average volatility of individual country returns on local currency debt instruments was nearly 16 per cent. At the same time, yields on local currency debt were also high, at 13.7 per cent on average, but not high enough to compensate for the risk. Hence investing in any one local currency market was not attractive.Combining the returns on individual country securities into a portfolio, however, does produce desirable results. As we will show below, returns on a diversified portfolio range from 8.10 per cent annually while the risk of a diversified portfolio drops substantially to approximately 5.5 per cent (which is in line with United States investment grade bonds).” – Dodd & Spiegel 2005

Although Dodd & Spiegel focuses on investment in debt instruments I thought their line of thinking could be applied to an equity portfolio as well. My hope was to use portfolio theory to show that the risk of investing in a company in Mali was balanced by that investments effect on the expected variance of a portfolio. The difficulties I encountered while attempting to make this connection lead me to change my course of action to steer investment to Groupe Zirasun.

Commentary: there are fortunes at the bottom and there is no mystery that capital can unlock poverty

The idea of investing in the developing world is not new, though in the past this has been done through personal contacts and experience in these markets. Often it was ex-patriots who found new lives in developing countries who brought money to start businesses. This, for the most part, still continues to be the case. To invest in most, if not all of Africa, requires on the ground research, and the slow development of trust and information about the markets. Our friends on Wall, or Bay Street, might say is that this is high-friction and that the lack of information is a major factor for limiting investment. They might also cite a multitude of other reasons that are listed in the Doing Business Guide, provided by the IFC (a great resource).

This personal experience is how I have come upon an opportunity to invest in a business in Africa. My own business, Adapted Consulting, is largely focused on economic development in Africa and as a result we do see opportunities from time to time. Though many argue that it should be local people who are left to develop these endeavours alone, I would argue that in some cases that is certainly a good choice, but as happens elsewhere, the infusion of expertise and capital from elsewhere is an important shot in the arm in development. NGO established economic development projects are often plagued by a problem of a mis-alignment of incentives and perhaps agency issues -- the people funding and managing may have quite differing goals. These people also are not vested in the success of these operations.

While working in Africa for the better part of the last 5 years, I have developed a set of principles that I believe in, for how economic development should be done. One of these ideas has emerged from the Prahalad school of thought, that is that I do agree with his thesis that there are economic opportunities at the Bottom of the Pyramid. I also have come to agree with many of the ideas of de Soto, that capital is essential to developing more robust economies where economic exchange can happen with reduced friction (to grossly paraphrase). Moreover, in that sense, I believe that one of the weaknesses of the current 3rd party donor model, is that good ideas that have economic potential are not easily capitalized and financed so that they can be scaled. As a result, we have vested in this idea, Rob has taken lead by pulling together academic research to help fet our or practical knowledge. I trust that we are right and that we can find a scalable and sustainable means to invest in those countries where so far, few have dared but that so much is needed. There are fortunes at the bottom and there is no mystery that capital can unlock poverty. This next decade is again about innovation, but the greatest triumphs will be in finding new ways to do business. There is great potential in these undeveloped markets, we just need to find out how to do it. Here is our effort to that end.

Ian